Modell:

Aktualisierung:

Update monthly

Greenwich Mean Time:

12:00 UTC = 14:00 MESZ

Auflösung:

1.0° x 1.0°

Parameter:

Windvektor in 50 m über Grund

Beschreibung:

In dieser Karte ist für jeden Modellgitterpunkt der modellierte mittlere Windvektor in 50 m über Grund eingezeichnet. Die Erfahrung zeigt, daß zwar die tatsächlich gemessenen Windstärken in 50 m meist etwas schwächer sind als im Modell, sonst aber in der Regel den berechneten Winden nahe kommen.

Introduction to seasonal forecasting:

The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
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