模式:

Times Series from the ECMWF

更新:
Update monthly
格林尼治平时:
12:00 UTC = 20:00 北京时间
Resolution:
1.0° x 1.0°
参量:
抬升指数
描述:
抬升指数(LI)是一种表示自由对流高度以上不稳定能量大小的指数。它表示一个气块 从抬升凝结高度出发,沿湿绝热线上升到500百帕(海拔5500米左右高度)处所具有的 温度被该处实际大气温度所减得到的差值。比如,某一气块沿湿绝热线上升到500百帕 时的理论值为-14°C, 而该处的实际温度为-18°C, 那么抬升指数就是-4。 当差值为负数时,表明气块比其环境温度更暖,因此将会继续上升。该差值的绝对值 越大,出现对流天气的可能性也越大。差值为正数时,表示大气层结稳定。

值得注意的是,中国气象学家定义的抬升指数和上面的定义正好相反,他们用一个气块 沿湿绝热线上升到500百帕处所具有的温度减去该处实际大气温度得到的差值定义抬升 指数(大气科学辞典,P603)。因此获得的抬升指数值和我们此处的抬升指数值符号正好 相反。

抬升指数 天气现象 >0 不可能出现雷雨天气 0- -3 可能出现雷雨天气 -3 - -5 很可能出现雷雨天气 -5 - -7 强对流(雷雨)天气 <-7 大气极端不稳定,强对流天气
Introduction to seasonal forecasting:
The production of seasonal forecasts, also known as seasonal climate forecasts, has undergone a huge transformation in the last few decades: from a purely academic and research exercise in the early '90s to the current situation where several meteorological forecast services, throughout the world, conduct routine operational seasonal forecasting activities. Such activities are devoted to providing estimates of statistics of weather on monthly and seasonal time scales, which places them somewhere between conventional weather forecasts and climate predictions.
 
In that sense, even though seasonal forecasts share some methods and tools with weather forecasting, they are part of a different paradigm which requires treating them in a different way. Instead of trying to answer to the question "how is the weather going to look like on a particular location in an specific day?", seasonal forecasts will tell us how likely it is that the coming season will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than 'usual' for that time of year. This kind of long term predictions are feasible due to the behaviour of some of the Earth system components which evolve more slowly than the atmosphere (e.g. the ocean, the cryosphere) and in a predictable fashion, so their influence on the atmosphere can add a noticeable signal.
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