<div class="eI0"> <div class="eI1">Model:</div> <div class="eI2"><h2><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts" target="_blank">ECMWF</a>: Global weather forecast model from the "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts". ECMWF is now running its own Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS) as part of its experiment suite. These machine-learning-based models are very fast, and they produce a 10-day forecast with 6-hourly time steps in approximately one minute. </h2></div> </div> <div class="eI0"> <div class="eI1">Güncelleme:</div> <div class="eI2">4 times per day, from 3:30, 09:30, 15:30 and 21:30 UTC</div> </div> <div class="eI0"> <div class="eI1">Greenwich Mean Time:</div> <div class="eI2">12:00 UTC = 15:00 EET</div> </div> <div class="eI0"> <div class="eI1">Resolution:</div> <div class="eI2">0.25° x 0.25°</div> </div> <div class="eI0"> <div class="eI1">Parametre:</div> <div class="eI2">Yükseltgenmiş Indeks</div> </div> <div class="eI0"> <div class="eI1">Tarife:</div> <div class="eI2"> <!--begin info text LI--> <p> Yükseltgenmiş Indeks (LI), 500 milibara( yaklaşık 5.5000m veya 18,000 fit) ulaşan ve 500mbar’daki çevresel sıcaklık ile gerçek sıcaklığın farkı ile bulunan, yükselen hava kütlesinin sıcaklığı olarak tanımlanır. Eğer Yükseltgenmiş Indeks büyük negatif bir sayı ise, yükselen hava kütlesi etrafına oranla daha sıcaktır ve yükselmeye devam eder. Gökgürültüsü ve orajlar hızla yükselen hava ile beslenirler, bu yüzden Yükseltgenmiş Indeks atmosferin üretebileceği potansiyel yıldırım ve şimşek riski açısından iyi bir ölçektir. </p> <p> <!--begin LI table--> <body> <table width="400" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0"> <tr height="30" bgcolor="#E5E5E5"><!-- Row 1 --> <td colspan="4"><font size="3" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#0000FF">The Lifted Index (LI)</td> </tr> <tr height="30"><!-- Row 2 --> <td width="17%" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>RANGE IN K</center></td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5" width="20%" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>COLOR</center></td> <td width="30%" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY</center></td> <td widht="33%" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25" bgcolor="#E5E5E5"><!-- Row 3 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>more than 11</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#00A1E6"><center>BLUE</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Extremely stable conditions</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Thunderstorms unlikely</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25"><!-- Row 4 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>8 to 11</center></td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#00C7C7"><center>LIGHT BLUE</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Very stable conditions</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Thunderstorms unlikely</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25" bgcolor="#E5E5E5"><!-- Row 5 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>4 to 7</center></td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#00D18C"><center>GREEN</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Stable conditions</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Thunderstorms unlikely</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25"><!-- Row 6 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>0 to 3</center></td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5"valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#A1E633"><center>LIGHT GREEN</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Mostly stable conditions</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Thunderstorm unlikely</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25" bgcolor="#E5E5E5"><!-- Row 7 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>-3 to -1</center></td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#E6DC33"><center>YELLOW</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Slightly unstable</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Thunderstorms possible</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25"><!-- Row 8 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>-5 to -4</center></td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#F08229"><center>ORANGE</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Unstable</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Thunderstorms probable</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25" bgcolor="#E5E5E5"><!-- Row 9 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>-7 to -6</center></td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#F00000"><center>RED</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Highly unstable</center></td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Severe thunderstorms possible</center></td> </tr> <tr height="25"><!-- Row 10 --> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>less than -7</td> <td bgcolor="#E5E5E5" valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica" color="#FF00FF"><center>VIOLET</td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Extremely unstable</td> <td valign="top"><font size="1" face="Arial, Helvetica"><center>Violent thunderstorms, tornadoes possible</td> </tr> </table> <!--end LI table--> </p> <!--end info_text LI--> </div> </div> <div class="eI0"> <div class="eI1">NWP:</div> <div class="eI2">Numerical weather prediction uses current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the weather. Although the first efforts to accomplish this were done in the 1920s, it wasn't until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that it was feasible to do in real-time. Manipulating the huge datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to do this on a resolution fine enough to make the results useful requires the use of some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. A number of forecast models, both global and regional in scale, are run to help create forecasts for nations worldwide. Use of model ensemble forecasts helps to define the forecast uncertainty and extend weather forecasting farther into the future than would otherwise be possible.<br> <br>Wikipedia, Numerical weather prediction, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction</a>(as of Feb. 9, 2010, 20:50 UTC).<br> </div></div> </div>